Bookmakers at Betfair rate France as most likely to win Euro 2020.
Les Bleus are 5.5/1 to win the tournament, and as current world champions and finalists in the last Euros, few would begrudge them the label as favourites. England are second favourites (no really), according to Betfair, followed by Belgium, Italy and Spain.
Goldman Sachs, one of the largest banks in the world by assets, has a different take. Analysts from its economics research unit fancy Belgium to win the tournament, with its modelling suggesting that the Red Devils will beat defending champs Portugal in the final.
Goldman’s modelling is based on goals scored and conceded in recent games; home advantage (worth 0.4 goals per game); tournament effect; and the Elo ratings system, which uses the formula Rn = Ro + K × (W - We) to calculate so-called “winning expectancies”.
You can read more about the Elo formula here.
The simulations are “highly uncertain”, Goldman says, “because football is quite an unpredictable game.” Indeed.
To a large extent the Goldman model seems to be predicated on Elo ratings, with its simulation showing that the semi-finalists will comprise teams that are in the top 5 Elo ratings: Spain, Italy, Belgium and Portugal.
The big surprise is that Goldman predicts that France - with the second-highest Elo of teams in the tournament - will lose to the Netherlands, with the French “penalised ... by a difficult group stage, lack of home advantage and negative momentum”.
My view is that France and Portugal - the finalists from 2016 - will both go deep into the tournament - and I may have dropped a tenner on that.
What about you? Are you betting against the bank?
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